The Saudi-Emirati spat in Yemen was not a limited show of force by Saudi Arabia to deter the immediate threat of STC-driven instability along its southern border. Rather, recent Saudi actions indicate the launch of a coordinated campaign to roll back the broader regional status quo shaped by the UAE-funded axis of secessionists.
Consider the Saudi bombing and subsequent takeover by Saudi-backed Yemeni National Shield Forces (NSF) of Ataq, the main town of Shabwa governorate, along with the Balhaf LNG terminal. Neither constitutes an immediate Saudi national security concern. Both, however, sit squarely within areas tied to Emirati strategic interests, particularly control over shipping routes. Meanwhile, UAE-backed STC leader Aidrous al-Zubaidi, reportedly a UAE national, is in Riyadh, where he is likely being pressed to engage with the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council. The outcome, expected within a day or two, will signal the UAE’s true risk appetite.
Predictably, Saudi moves in Yemen have triggered a wider pushback against UAE-Israeli manoeuvres. Turkish President Erdoğan called MBS to reaffirm commitment to the territorial integrity of Somalia and Yemen, followed by a call to MBZ conveying the same message. In parallel, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan’s visit to Egypt secured Cairo’s backing for Riyadh’s position. The real surprise, however, may be some Saudi-Houthi deal or tacit arrangement. It is very likely that both parties have made some contact.
The ball now lies in the UAE and Israel’s court. The Emiratis are watching their regional strategy unravel in real time and they know it will not stop at Yemen or Somalia.
